Politics LIVE: Reform UK handed polling boost as Nigel Farage just ONE SEAT short of majority
A poll of polls from Electoral Calculus has projected that Reform UK would be one seat short of a parliamentary majority if a General Election was held now - potentially making Nigel Farage Prime Minister.
Electoral Calculus surveyed 5,400 people between May 30 and June 26 with results suggesting Reform would win 325 seats.
This would enable Farage to enter No10 with coalition partners, with minority government probabilities assume possible alliances between the Conservative and Reform parties.
The poll places Reform UK on 29.4 per cent of the vote, with Labour trailing at 22.9 per cent and the Conservatives in third place with 18.2 per cent.
Labour would be reduced to just 145 seats while the Liberal Democrats would secure 67.
Martin Baxter, founder of Electoral Calculus, said: "Labour have reduced Reform's lead by 1pc over the last month, but Nigel Farage's party is still 7 per cent ahead of Labour.
"If there were a general election soon, Reform would be predicted to win it with a comfortable overall majority."
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Key takeaways from Liz Kendall's welfare reform announcement
- Changes to Pip will only come in from November 2026
- The "first-ever, sustained, above-inflation rise to the Universal Credit standards allowance"
- An additional £300million into employment support for sick and disabled people
- A total of £600million of support next year, £800million the year after and £1billion in 2028/29 of support for sick and disabled people
- The reform package "will be certified by the OBR (Office for Budget Responsibility)"
Liz Kendall says welfare reform will cost 'around £2.5billion in 2029/30'
Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall has told MPs that new welfare reforms will cost the Government £2.5billion.
Kendall said that the Government have "listened carefully, and [is] making positive changes as a result".
She said in the Commons: "We will now ensure the new four-point requirement will only apply to new claims from November 2026. This means no existing claimants will lose Pip because of the changes brought forward in this Bill, and existing claimants of passported benefits like carer's allowance will continue to get them too.
"Now, some people have said they're concerned it will create a two-tier system, but I would say to the House, including members opposite that our benefits system often protects existing claimants from new rates or new rules, because lives have been built around that support, and it's often very hard for people to adjust."
Jonathan Reynolds hits back at warning that welfare reform bill will push 150,000 into poverty
Jonathan Reynolds is confident the welfare reform bill will pass its second reading
PABusiness Secretary Jonathan Reynolds has disputed claims that 150,000 people will be pushed into poverty by 2030 if the Government's welfare reform bill is passed.
Reynolds said: "Those figures cannot and do not, as a matter of policy, take into account where the savings of these changes will go, and they will go in the main to more support for the most vulnerable people, more support to get people into full time work.
"When I see an assessment like that, it's got to look at the whole picture. We're making more work secure through our Employment Rights Bill, we've put up the living wage to one of the highest levels of any developed country, and we're putting more money into specialist help, one-to-one help to get people back into work."
The Business Secretary is confident the bill will pass through its second reading, stating: "I think everybody here across Parliament wants a system that protects the most vulnerable people. That's certainly what I want."
Labour rebel slams welfare reforms and declares: 'We must stop this bill!'
MP Nadia Whittome shared her views on social media
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Another 150,000 Britons to be pushed into poverty by 2030 due to Labour's welfare cuts - despite Starmer U-turn
An additional 150,000 people will be in relative poverty after housing costs by the end of 2030, despite Sir Keir Starmer being forced into a partial U-turn.
The number is lower than the previously estimated 250,000 additional people who would have been pushed into poverty after housing costs under the original plans.
Modelling released by the Department for Work and Pensions noted that this estimate does not factor in any “potential positive impact” from increased funding or initiatives aimed at helping people with disabilities and long-term health conditions enter the workforce.
Last week, Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall confirmed that changes to Personal Independence Payment (PIP) will only affect new applicants starting in November 2026.
The Government also reversed course on proposed cuts to the health-related component of Universal Credit after 126 Labour MPs backed an amendment that would have effectively blocked the Bill.
Palestine Action takes court action to block Yvette Cooper proscribing it as a terror group
A spokesman for Yvette Cooper's Home Office said the department has 'begun to restore order' to the system it inheritedGETTY
Palestine Action campaigners are taking court action in an attempt to block the Government from banning it as a terrorist organisation, a spokesman for their lawyers said.
The High Court has granted Palestine Action an urgent hearing to challenge the government's impending proscription.
Birnberg Peirce submitted the claim on behalf of Huda Ammori, a 31-year-old of Palestinian and Iraqi heritage, and a founder of Palestine Action.
Yvette Cooper had announced plans to ban the group, which were due to come into force today.
Keir Starmer confirms major trade deal with Donald Trump to benefit UK's 'world-class' car industry
Prime Minister Keir Starmer said the trade deal would provide backing to the UK car industry PA
The UK and the United States have agreed a landmark deal to secure better trading regulations for British car makers in a historic move.
Sir Keir Starmer has confirmed that manufacturers exporting vehicles to the United States will now face a 10 per cent tariff, down from 27.5 per cent.
President Donald Trump initially launched the "Liberation Day" tariffs in April, despite warnings from British manufacturers that it could hammer production and profits.
Labour estimates that manufacturers will now save hundreds of millions of pounds every year, while also protecting thousands of jobs.
Channel crossings continue to surge as small boat arrivals soar to over 19,000 in fresh misery for Keir Starmer
The Prime Minister is facing fresh misery in the Channel, as UK authorities grapple with another significant surge in small boat arrivals.
At least 200 have crossed so far this morning, on what is expected to be the hottest day of the year, with other boats currently pushing off from French beaches.
Several so called "Red Days" are expected over the next 10 days, allowing the people smugglers to launch many more small boats towards the UK.
High Court fast-tracks Chagos case as Labour faces legal action over deal with Mauritius
Chagossians outside the High Court in central LondonPA
A legal challenge demanding the UK Government consult Chagossians before transferring sovereignty of their homeland has progressed in the High Court.
The Judicial Review, launched by Chagossian claimant Louis Misley Mandarin with backing from the Great British PAC, has been accepted and placed on an expedited schedule by the High Court.
The Government must now file its defence by July 4, reducing the usual 28-day deadline significantly.
Keir Starmer is 'human' and has been open about 'the challenges that he is facing in the job', Labour minister says
Keir Starmer
PAA Labour minister has said that Sir Keir Starmer is “human” and has been open about “the challenges he is facing in the job,” following the PM's remarks that he had been more focused on international issues than the escalating welfare rebellion.
The comments came after a separate interview on Friday in which Starmer expressed “deep regret” over describing the UK as potentially becoming an “island of strangers” amid the fallout from an alleged arson attack on his family home.
Asked about Starmer's comments, Baroness Jacqui Smith told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “What you’ve just described Nick is a Prime Minister who is human and who expresses the challenges that he is facing in the job.
“But who has also focused on these welfare reforms in a way that will both achieve the necessary big change to welfare so that it actually serves people who need it, and on the details of how we can reassure people about how those changes will go about.”
BBC branded 'disgraceful' by furious Tory MP as he blasts 'two-tier justice' in Britain
Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary Danny Kruger has condemned the BBC as "disgraceful" for broadcasting Bob Vylan's controversial Glastonbury performance, during which the rapper led crowds in chanting "death to the IDF".
Speaking to GB News, Kruger said it was "distressing" to see the performance and blasted the "two-tier justice" in Britain.
UK economy sees highest growth since early 2024
The data comes as Chancellor Rachel Reeves faces mounting pressure to balance investment-led recovery with strict fiscal rules.GETTY
The UK economy expanded by 0.7 per cent between January and March, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS)
The increase in gross domestic product (GDP) was driven by growth across all three main sectors.
Services output rose by 0.7 per cent, while production increased by 1.3 per cent and construction edged up by 0.3 per cent.
Keir Starmer warns hospitals MUST ban trans people from women's toilets immediately - 'Stop dragging your feet!'
Prime Minister Keir Starmer has warned hospitals and universities that they must now ban transgender people from women's toilets "as soon as possible".
The Labour leader said public bodies are required to obey the law and must comply with April’s Supreme Court ruling - which found that trans women are not legally women.
However, months later, dozens of NHS trusts have failed to change their guidance.
Hitting back, the Starmer said: “We’ve accepted the ruling, welcomed the ruling, and everything else flows from that as far as I’m concerned.
“Therefore all guidance of whatever kind needs to be consistent with the ruling and we need to get to that position as soon as possible.”
Labour minister slams BBC warnings during Bob Vylan’s Glastonbury set as 'not good enough'
A Government minister has suggested that the BBC’s on-screen warnings about strong and discriminatory language during Bob Vylan’s Glastonbury performance were inadequate.
Baroness Jacqui Smith was asked whether she believes the BBC displays any bias.
"I don’t think the BBC has a bias, but I think it made a mistake here," she told Times Radio.
“It’s not good enough simply to say on screen that, you know, this is dodgy language.
“It was far beyond that and it shouldn’t have been broadcast live. And I think it would have been possible for the BBC to stop that."
EXPOSED: EU to impose sweeping new regulation on the WHOLE of Britain in just 24 hours
The EU is set to impose a new regulation across Britain in a matter of hoursPA
The EU is set to impose a new regulation across Britain in a matter of hours.
The first phase of a three-pronged series of food labelling rules will come into force from July 1 - giving ministers the power to enforce EU regulations across the whole of the UK.
Labour backbenchers say PM’s credibility 'substantially damaged' ahead of crunch vote
Sir Keir Starmer faces a critical parliamentary vote on Tuesday as MPs prepare to vote on the Government's welfare proposals.
Despite concessions made last week, numerous backbench Labour MPs continue to threaten rebellion against the legislation.
The Prime Minister's attempts to quell dissent have achieved partial success, with some high-profile critics now backing the Government.
Former transport secretary Louise Haigh is among those who have reversed their opposition and announced they will support the proposals.
However, one Labour MP said: "A Prime Minister can't within weeks announce a series of reversals of policy which he was previously absolutely firm on without losing political capital."
"That's where we now are, it's self-evident that Starmer's credibility has been substantially damaged," they told The Telegraph.
Liz Kendall's line on the quadruple welfare U-turn - READ IN FULL
'This is about delivering a fairer, more compassionate system as part of our plan for change,' Liz Kendall said
PALiz Kendall said: "We must build a welfare system that provides security for those who cannot work and the right support for those who can.
"Too often, disabled people feel trapped, worried that if they try to work, they could lose the support they depend on.
"That is why we are taking action to remove those barriers, support disabled people to live with dignity and independence, and open routes into employment for those who want to pursue it.
"This is about delivering a fairer, more compassionate system as part of our plan for change which supports people to thrive, whatever their circumstances."
RECAP: What are the four U-turns for? Keir Starmer faces mega-rebellion as 100 Labour MPs plot to kill PM's welfare bill
Last week, reports emerged that the Prime Minister was bracing for a huge backbench rebellion over his plan to cut Britain's ballooning benefits bill by £5billion.
Almost 100 Labour MPs are believed to have signed an amendment demanding further consultation on Sir Keir Starmer's welfare proposals.
The amendment, which has been led by Treasury Select Committee chair Meg Hillier, could derail Work & Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall's large-scale plans for reform.
But rebels have claimed that the amendment, which will be published on Tuesday, does not intend to wreck Labour's welfare bill.
“We all want the Labour Government to succeed in getting people back into work and supporting those who can’t," Hillier told The Guardian.
"We don’t want to defeat the Government but we want the Government to think again," she added...
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